{"id":22997,"date":"2020-05-29T22:38:00","date_gmt":"2020-05-29T22:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.maapprogram.org\/?p=22997"},"modified":"2024-09-26T18:36:04","modified_gmt":"2024-09-26T18:36:04","slug":"maap-119-portugues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.maapprogram.org\/pt-br\/maap-119-portugues\/","title":{"rendered":"MAAP #119: Previs\u00e3o de inc\u00eandios na Amaz\u00f4nia brasileira em 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>
Inc\u00eandio na Amaz\u00f4nia brasileira de 2019 queimando \u00e1rea recentemente desmatada, n\u00e3o inc\u00eandio florestal descontrolado. Dados: Planet; An\u00e1lise: MAAP.<\/span><\/i><\/div><\/div>\n

Os <\/span>inc\u00eandios na Amaz\u00f4nia brasileira<\/b> foram manchetes internacionais no ano passado.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ao analisar um arquivo de imagens de sat\u00e9lite (do <\/span>Planet Explorer<\/span><\/a> ), fizemos a grande descoberta de que muitos dos inc\u00eandios de 2019 estavam, na verdade, <\/span>queimando \u00e1reas desmatadas recentemente<\/b> ( <\/span>MAAP #113<\/span><\/a> ). Na verdade, muitos dos inc\u00eandios estavam queimando \u00e1reas desmatadas no in\u00edcio do mesmo ano de 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

Assim, podemos <\/span>prever os locais de inc\u00eandio de 2020<\/b> com base na identifica\u00e7\u00e3o de grandes eventos de desmatamento nos primeiros meses deste ano.<\/span><\/p>\n

Usando uma nova metodologia*, estimamos o desmatamento de mais de <\/span>150.000 hectares<\/b> (373.240 acres) de floresta prim\u00e1ria na Amaz\u00f4nia brasileira at\u00e9 agora em 2020 (at\u00e9 25 de maio). Portanto, h\u00e1 alto potencial para outra temporada intensa de inc\u00eandios.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abaixo, ilustramos o processo de previs\u00e3o de inc\u00eandios em 2020 com base no desmatamento recente.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nota: No <\/span>MAAP #118,<\/span><\/a> acabamos de relatar que os <\/span>primeiros grandes inc\u00eandios de 2020<\/b> estavam, na verdade, queimando \u00e1reas recentemente desmatadas (2018-19).<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Previs\u00e3o de inc\u00eandios em 2020<\/b><\/h3>\n

No <\/span>Mapa Base<\/b> , os pontos amarelos indicam os maiores novos eventos de desmatamento que prevemos serem <\/span>prov\u00e1veis \u200b\u200blocais de inc\u00eandios em 2020.<\/b> Veja abaixo exemplos de imagens de sat\u00e9lite (letras AG). Dois dos prov\u00e1veis \u200b\u200bpontos de inc\u00eandio est\u00e3o dentro de \u00e1reas protegidas (veja Anexo).<\/span><\/h3>\n
\"\"<\/a>
Mapa base. Principais eventos de desmatamento de 2020 (pontos amarelos) como preditores de eventos de inc\u00eandio de 2020. Dados: Hansen\/UMD\/Google\/USGS\/NASA, UMD\/GLAD, RAISG, MAAP. Clique para ampliar.<\/span><\/i><\/div><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n

Exemplos de grandes eventos de desmatamento em 2020<\/b><\/h3>\n

Abaixo est\u00e1 uma s\u00e9rie de imagens mostrando os principais eventos de desmatamento de 2020 que prevemos serem prov\u00e1veis \u200b\u200blocais de inc\u00eandios futuros (veja as letras AG no Mapa Base acima para contexto). As <\/span>setas vermelhas<\/b> apontam para os principais eventos de desmatamento. Observe que todas as \u00e1reas de desmatamento s\u00e3o cercadas por floresta prim\u00e1ria que pode ser impactada se os inc\u00eandios escaparem. Observe tamb\u00e9m que v\u00e1rias \u00e1reas de desmatamento s\u00e3o bem grandes, mais de 2.000 hectares (5.000 acres).<\/span><\/p>\n

Zoom A (Mato Grosso)<\/b><\/h3>\n

O Zoom A mostra o desmatamento de <\/span>775 hectares<\/b> (1.915 acres) entre janeiro (painel esquerdo) e maio de 2020 (painel direito), no estado de Mato Grosso.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Zoom A. Clique para ampliar.<\/span><\/i><\/div><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n

Zoom B (Mato Grosso)<\/b><\/h3>\n

O Zoom B mostra o desmatamento de <\/span>205 hectares<\/b> (510 acres) entre janeiro (painel esquerdo) e maio de 2020 (painel direito), no estado de Mato Grosso.<\/span><\/h3>\n
\"\"<\/a>
Zoom B. Clique para ampliar.<\/span><\/i><\/div><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n

Zoom C (Mato Grosso)<\/b><\/h3>\n

O zoom C mostra o desmatamento de <\/span>395 hectares<\/b> (980 acres) entre janeiro (painel esquerdo) e maio de 2020 (painel direito), no estado de Mato Grosso.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Zoom C. Clique para ampliar.<\/span><\/i><\/div><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n

Zoom D (Mato Grosso)<\/b><\/h3>\n

O Zoom D mostra o desmatamento de <\/span>300 hectares<\/b> (735 acres) entre janeiro (painel esquerdo) e maio de 2020 (painel direito), no estado de Mato Grosso.<\/span><\/h3>\n
\"\"<\/a>
Zoom D. Clique para ampliar.<\/span><\/i><\/div><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n

Zoom E (Rond\u00f4nia)<\/b><\/h3>\n

O Zoom E mostra o desmatamento de <\/span>840 hectares<\/b> (2.075 acres) entre janeiro (painel esquerdo) e abril de 2020 (painel direito), no estado de Rond\u00f4nia.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

<\/div><\/p>\n

Zoom F (Amazonas)<\/b><\/h3>\n

O Zoom F mostra o desmatamento de <\/span>2.395 hectares<\/b> (5.920 acres) entre janeiro (painel esquerdo) e maio de 2020 (painel direito), no estado do Amazonas.<\/span><\/h3>\n
\"\"<\/a>
Zoom F. Clique para ampliar.<\/span><\/i><\/div><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n

Zoom G (Par\u00e1)<\/b><\/h3>\n

O Zoom G mostra o desmatamento de <\/span>5.990 hectares<\/b> (14.800 acres) entre janeiro (painel esquerdo) e maio de 2020 (painel direito), no estado do Par\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Zoom G. Clique para ampliar.<\/span><\/i><\/div><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n

Coordenadas<\/b><\/h3>\n

Mundo Eckert IV ( Graus Decimais ) (X,Y)<\/span><\/p>\n

Zoom A: -54,862624, -11,971904<\/span>
\n<\/span>Zoom B: -55,087026, -11,836788<\/span>
\n<\/span>Zoom C: -56,999405, -11,979054 Zoom D: -57,128192<\/span>
\n<\/span>, -11,896948 Zoom E<\/span>
\n<\/span>: -62,658907, -8,477944<\/span>
\n<\/span>Zoom F: -58,892358, -6,567775<\/span>
\n<\/span>Zoom G: -54,948419, -7,853721<\/span><\/h3>\n
<\/div>\n

Previs\u00e3o de inc\u00eandios para 2020<\/b><\/h3>\n

A previs\u00e3o de julho a setembro de 2020 aponta para uma temporada ativa de inc\u00eandios na maior parte da Amaz\u00f4nia ocidental \u2013 grande parte do centro e sul do Peru, norte da Bol\u00edvia e os estados brasileiros do Acre e Rond\u00f4nia. A previs\u00e3o deste ano indica uma temporada ativa de inc\u00eandios de magnitude semelhante \u00e0s de 2005 e 2010, quando inc\u00eandios generalizados foram observados na regi\u00e3o.<\/span><\/p>\n

Para mais informa\u00e7\u00f5es, consulte: <\/span>https:\/\/firecast.cast.uark.edu\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/div><\/span><\/h3>\n

Anexo \u2013 Prov\u00e1veis \u200b\u200blocais de inc\u00eandios em 2020 em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s \u00c1reas Protegidas e Territ\u00f3rios Ind\u00edgenas<\/b><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Metodologia<\/b><\/h3>\n

*Desenvolvemos uma nova metodologia para estimar o desmatamento de floresta prim\u00e1ria na Amaz\u00f4nia brasileira. Para dados de 2020, mesclamos alertas GLAD confirmados (Universidade de Maryland) com alertas DETER selecionados da ag\u00eancia espacial brasileira (INPE). Essa metodologia aproveita a maior resolu\u00e7\u00e3o dos alertas GLAD (30 metros vs 64 metros do DETER), mas tamb\u00e9m a expertise nacional do governo brasileiro.<\/span><\/p>\n

Para os dados do DETER, usamos as tr\u00eas categorias de desmatamento e minera\u00e7\u00e3o (DESMATAMENTO CR, DESMATAMENTO Vegetal e MINERACAO). Evitamos \u00e1reas sobrepostas com os alertas GLAD.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por fim, filtramos os dados apenas para perda de floresta prim\u00e1ria. Para nossa estimativa de perda de floresta prim\u00e1ria, cruzamos os dados de perda de cobertura florestal com o conjunto de dados adicional \u201cflorestas tropicais \u00famidas prim\u00e1rias\u201d de 2001 (Turubanova et al 2018). Tamb\u00e9m removemos todos os dados anteriores de perda de floresta de 2001-19.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Agradecimentos<\/b><\/h3>\n

Agradecemos a J. Beavers, S. Novoa, K. Fernandes e G. Palacios pelos coment\u00e1rios \u00fateis \u00e0s vers\u00f5es anteriores deste relat\u00f3rio.<\/span><\/p>\n

Este trabalho foi apoiado pelos seguintes financiadores principais: Global Forest Watch Small Grants Fund (WRI), Ag\u00eancia Norueguesa para Coopera\u00e7\u00e3o para o Desenvolvimento (NORAD), Fundo Internacional de Conserva\u00e7\u00e3o do Canad\u00e1 (ICFC), Metabolic Studio e Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Erol.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Cita\u00e7\u00e3o<\/b><\/h3>\n

Finer M, Mamani N (2020) Desmatamento e inc\u00eandios na Amaz\u00f4nia brasileira \u2013 2020. MAAP:<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Os inc\u00eandios na Amaz\u00f4nia brasileira foram manchetes internacionais no ano passado. Ao analisar um arquivo de imagens de sat\u00e9lite (do Planet Explorer ), fizemos a grande descoberta de que muitos dos inc\u00eandios de 2019 estavam, na verdade, queimando \u00e1reas desmatadas recentemente ( MAAP #113 ). Na verdade, muitos dos inc\u00eandios estavam queimando \u00e1reas desmatadas no […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"ftr_agriculture":[],"carbon-and-climate-change":[],"ftr_country":[449],"fire":[453],"infrastructure-threat":[],"land-use":[],"mining-and-logging-threat":[],"natural-forest-loss":[],"special-analysis":[],"class_list":["post-22997","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nao-categorizado","ftr_country-brasil","fire-incendios-pt-br"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMAAP #119: Previs\u00e3o de inc\u00eandios na Amaz\u00f4nia brasileira em 2020 - MAAP<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.maapprogram.org\/pt-br\/maap-119-portugues\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MAAP #119: Previs\u00e3o de inc\u00eandios na Amaz\u00f4nia brasileira em 2020 - MAAP\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Os inc\u00eandios na Amaz\u00f4nia brasileira foram manchetes internacionais no ano passado. Ao analisar um arquivo de imagens de sat\u00e9lite (do Planet Explorer ), fizemos a grande descoberta de que muitos dos inc\u00eandios de 2019 estavam, na verdade, queimando \u00e1reas desmatadas recentemente ( MAAP #113 ). 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