Country: Suriname

MAAP #220: Carbon across the Amazon (part 3): Key Cases of Carbon Loss & Gain

Posted on by dcadmin
Graph 1. The Amazon biome functions as a narrow carbon sink from 2013 to 2022. Data: Planet, ACA/MAAP.

In part 1 of this series (MAAP #215), we introduced a critical new dataset (Planet’s Forest Carbon Diligence) with wall-to-wall estimates for aboveground carbon at an unprecedented 30-meter resolution between 2013 and 2022. This data uniquely merges machine learning, satellite imagery, airborne lasers, and a global biomass dataset from GEDI, a NASA mission.

In part 2 (MAAP #217), we highlighted which parts of the Amazon are currently home to the highest (peak) aboveground carbon levels and the importance of protecting these high-integrity forests (see Annex 1).

Here, in part 3, we focus on aboveground carbon loss and gain across the Amazon over the 10 years for which we have data (2013-22; see Base Map below).

The Amazon loses carbon to the atmosphere due to deforestation, logging, human-caused fires, and natural disturbances, while it gains carbon from forest regeneration and old-growth forests continuing to sequester atmospheric carbon.4

Overall, we find that the Amazon still narrowly functions as a carbon sink (meaning the carbon gain is greater than the loss) during this period, gaining 64.7 million metric tons of aboveground carbon between 2013 and 2022 (see Graph 1).

This finding underscores the importance of both primary and secondary forests in countering widespread deforestation. Moreover, it highlights the critical potential of primary forests to continue accumulating carbon if left undisturbed.

This gain, however, is quite small relative to the total 56.8 billion metric tons of aboveground carbon contained in the Amazon biome (that is, a gain of just +0.1%), reinforcing concerns that the Amazon could flip to a carbon source in the coming years (with carbon loss becoming greater than its gain) due to increasing deforestation, degradation, and fires.1  See Annex 2 for more details, including how the Amazon became a carbon sink following the 2015 drought, but since rebounded.

The countries with the largest carbon gain are 1) Brazil, 2) Colombia, 3) Suriname, 4) Guyana, and 5) French Guiana. In contrast, the countries with the greatest carbon loss are 1) Bolivia, 2) Venezuela, 3) Peru, and 4) Ecuador.

Zooming in to the site level yields additional insights. For example, we can now estimate the carbon loss from major deforestation events across the Amazon from 2013 to 2022. On the flip side, we can also calculate the carbon gain from both secondary and primary forests.

Areas with carbon gain in intact areas indicate excellent candidates for the High Integrity Forest (HIFOR) initiative, a new financing instrument uniquely focused on maintaining intact tropical forests.2 Importantly, a HIFOR unit represents a hectare of high-integrity tropical forest within a high-integrity landscape that has been “well-conserved” for over a decade.3  Intact areas with carbon gain between 2013-22 may indicate decadally “well-conserved” areas that can be overlapped with areas of high ecological integrity.

Below, we illustrate these findings with a series of novel maps zooming in on emblematic cases of large carbon loss and gain across the Amazon from 2013 – 2022. These cases include forest loss driven by agriculture, gold mining, and roads, as well as forest gain in remote primary forests.

Base Map – Amazon Carbon Loss & Gain (2013-2022)

The Base Map shows wall-to-wall estimates of aboveground carbon loss and gain across the Amazon between 2013 and 2022.

Carbon loss is indicated by yellow to red, indicating low to high carbon loss. Carbon gain is indicated by light to dark green, indicating low to high carbon gains.

Below, we present a series of notable cases of high carbon loss and gain indicated in Insets A-I.

Base Map. Areas of major carbon loss and gain across the Amazon between 2013 and 2022. Source: Amazon Conservation/MAAP, Planet.

Emblematic Cases of Carbon Loss & Gain

Figure 1 highlights emblematic cases of carbon loss (Insets A-F in red) and carbon gain (Insets G-I in green). Below we highlight a series of emblematic cases.

Figure 1. Emblematic cases of carbon loss and gain across the Amazon. Source: Amazon Conservation/MAAP, Planet.

Carbon Loss

We can now estimate the carbon loss from major deforestation events across the Amazon during the past ten years, directly from a single dataset. These cases include forest loss from agriculture, gold mining, and roads. Note that the presented values represent just the carbon loss featured in the selected area.

A. Colombia – Arc of Deforestation

Figure 1A. Carbon loss in the Colombian Amazon’s arc of deforestation. Source: Amazon Conservation/MAAP, Planet.

Figure 1A shows the extensive carbon emissions (39.5 million metric tons) associated with the major deforestation within and surrounding protected areas and Indigenous territories in the Colombian Amazon‘s arc of deforestation.

The carbon loss within the protected areas and Indigenous territories is likely from illegal deforestation.

See MAAP #211 for more details.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

B. Peru – Mennonite Colonies

Figure 1B. Carbon loss by new Mennonite colonies in the Peruvian Amazon. Source: Amazon Conservation/MAAP, Planet.

Figure 1B shows the carbon emissions of 224,300 metric tons associated with the recent deforestation carried out by new Mennonite colonies arriving in the central Peruvian Amazon starting in 2017.

See MAAP #188 for more details, including information regarding the legality of  the deforestation causing the carbon loss.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

C. Peru – Gold Mining

Figure 1C. Carbon loss associated with gold mining deforestation in  southern Peruvian Amazon. Source: ACA/MAAP, Planet.

Figure 1C shows the extensive carbon emissions (11.3 million metric tons) associated with gold mining deforestation in the southern Peruvian Amazon.

Most of the carbon loss within the protected areas (and their buffer zones) and Indigenous territories is likely from illegal deforestation.

See MAAP #208 for more information, including details regarding the legality of the deforestation causing the carbon loss.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

D. Brazil – Road BR-364

Figure 1D. Carbon loss along BR-364 in the southwest Brazilian Amazon. Source: ACA/MAAP, Planet.

Figure 1D shows the carbon emissions along road BR-364 that crosses the state of Acre in the southwest Brazilian Amazon.

This road was opened in the 1960s and paved in the 1980s.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

E. Brazil – Road BR-319

Figure 1E. Carbon loss along paved roads. Source: ACA/MAAP, Planet.

Figure 1E shows a controversial road paving project that would effectively link the arc of deforestation to the south with more intact forests to the north in Amazonas and Roraima states.

Note that the current carbon loss is concentrated along the paved roads.

The paving of road BR-319 has recently caused headlines as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva recently authorized the paving of 20 km of the road and plans to bid for an additional 32 km (thus, paving of 52 km in total).

Modeling studies predict extensive new deforestation from this road construction, and thus additional associated carbon loss.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

F. Brazil – Road BR-163

Figure 1F. Carbon loss along BR-163 in the eastern Brazilian Amazon. Source: ACA/MAAP, Planet.

Figure 1F shows the extensive carbon emissions (71.4 million metric tons) along a recently paved stretch of road BR-163 which crosses the state of Pará in the eastern Brazilian Amazon.

Importantly, this stretch of road has been presented as a case study of what may happen along road BR-319 if it is paved.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Carbon Gain

We can also calculate the carbon gain from both secondary and primary forests. These cases include forest gain from remote primary forests that may be good candidates for the HIFOR initiative.

Figure 1G. Carbon gains in the southeast Colombian Amazon. Source: ACA/MAAP, Planet.

G. Southeast Colombia

Figure 1G shows the carbon gain of over 52.5 million metric tons in the remote southeast Colombian Amazon.

This area is anchored by three national parks and several large indigenous territories.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 1H. Carbon gains along the border of eastern Ecuador and northern Peru. Source: ACA/MAAP, Planet.

H. Ecuador – Peru border

Figure 1H shows the carbon gain of nearly 40 million metric tons along the border in eastern Ecuador and northern Peru.

Note this area is anchored by numerous protected areas, including Yasuni National Park in Ecuador and Pucacuro National Reserve in Peru, and Indigenous territories.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 1I. Carbon gains in the tri-border region of the northeast Amazon. Source: ACA/MAAP, Planet.

I. Northeast Amazon

Figure 1I shows the carbon gain of 164.7 million metric tons in the tri-border region of the northeast Amazon (northern Brazil, French Guiana, and Suriname).

For example, note the carbon gains in Montanhas do Tumucumaque National Park and Tumucumaque Indigenous territory in northeast Brazil.

Also note that this was an Amazonian “peak carbon area,” as described in MAAP #217.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annex 1

Annex 1. Peak carbon areas in relation to the carbon loss and gain data. Source: Amazon Conservation/MAAP, Planet.

In part 2 of this series (MAAP #217), we highlighted which parts of the Amazon are currently home to the highest (peak) aboveground carbon levels.

Annex 1 shows these peak carbon areas in relation to the carbon loss and gain data presented above.

Note that both peak carbon areas (southeast and northeast Amazon) are largely characterized by carbon gain.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annex 2

Annex 2. Amazon biome functions as a narrow carbon sink from 2013 to 2022, but became a source in between. Data: Planet, ACA/MAAP.

Annex 2 shows all ten years of aboveground carbon data grouped by two-year intervals (thus, it is an extension of Graph 1 above, adding data for the intermediate years).

In this context, black indicates our baseline of 2013-14, red indicates a decrease from the baseline (carbon source), and green indicates an increase from the baseline (carbon sink).

Importantly, there was a decrease in aboveground carbon from 2015-18, which likely reflects the severe droughts of 2015 and 2016 and subsequent severe fire seasons of 2016 and 2017. Aboveground carbon rebounded from 2019-22.

This trend supports the hypothesis that the Amazon biome is teetering on being an aboveground carbon source vs sink.

It also raises the possibility that the Amazon may return to being a carbon source following the intense drought and fires of 2024.

.

.

Notes

1 In part 1 of this series (MAAP #215), we found the Amazon “is still functioning as a critical carbon sink”. As pointed out in a companion blog by Planet, however, the net carbon sink of +64 million metric tons is quite small relative to the total estimate of 56.8 billion metric tons of aboveground carbon across the Amazon. That is a net positive change of just +0.1%. As the blog notes, that’s a “very small buffer” and there’s “reason to worry that the biome could flip from sink to source with ongoing deforestation.”

2 High Integrity Forest (HIFOR) units are a new, non-offset asset that recognizes and rewards the essential climate services and biodiversity conservation that intact tropical forests provide, including ongoing net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. HIFOR rewards the climate services that intact tropical forests provide, including ongoing net carbon removal from the atmosphere, and complements existing instruments to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+) by focusing on tropical forests that are largely undegraded. A HIFOR unit represents a hectare of well-conserved, high-integrity tropical forest where ‘well-conserved’ means that high ecological integrity is maintained over a decade of monitoring as part of equitable, effective management of a site and ‘high ecological integrity’ means a score of >9.6 on the Forest Landscape Integrity Index. For more information see https://www.wcs.org/our-work/climate-change/forests-and-climate-change/hifor

3 Two additional important references regarding HIFOR methodology and application:

High Integrity Forest Investment Initiative, Methodology for HIFOR units, April 2024. Downloaded from https://www.wcs.org/our-work/climate-change/forests-and-climate-change/hifor

Forest Landscape Integrity Index metric used by HIFOR: www.forestintegrity.com

4 In Planet’s Forest Carbon Diligence product, carbon loss and gain are detected via changes in canopy cover and canopy height during the given periods (in this case, 2013 vs 2022).

Acknowledgments

Through a generous sharing agreement with the satellite company Planet, we have been granted access to this data across the entire Amazon biome for the analysis presented in this series.

We also thank D. Zarin (WCS) for helpful comments regarding the implications of our findings for the HIFOR initiative.

Citation

Finer M, Mamani N, Anderson C, Rosenthal A (2024) Carbon across the Amazon (part 3): Key Cases of Carbon Loss & Gain. MAAP: 220.

MAAP #217: Carbon across the Amazon (part 2): Peak Carbon Areas

Posted on by dcadmin
Figure 1. Example of peak carbon areas in southern Peru and adjacent western Brazil. Data: Planet.

In part 1 of this series (MAAP #215), we introduced a critical new resource (Planet Forest Carbon Diligence) that provides wall-to-wall estimates for aboveground carbon density at an unprecedented 30-meter resolution. This data uniquely merges machine learning, satellite imagery, airborne lasers, and a global biomass dataset from GEDI, a NASA mission.4

In that report, we showed that the Amazon contains 56.8 billion metric tons of aboveground carbon (as of 2022), and described key patterns across all nine countries of the Amazon biome over the past decade.

Here, in part 2, we focus on the peak carbon areas of the Amazon that are home to the highest aboveground carbon levels.

These peak carbon areas correspond to the upper one-third of aboveground carbon density levels (>140 metric tons per hectare).1

They likely have experienced minimal degradation (such as selective logging, fire, and edge/fragmentation effects)2 and are thus a good proxy for high-integrity forests.

Figure 1 shows an important example of peak carbon areas in southern Peru and adjacent western Brazil.

The peak carbon areas are often found in the remote primary forests of protected areas and Indigenous territories, but some are located in forestry concessions (specifically, logging concessions) or undesignated lands (also referred to as undesignated public forests).

Our goal in this report is to leverage unprecedented aboveground carbon data to reinforce the importance of these designated areas and draw attention to the remaining undesignated lands.

For example, peak carbon areas would be excellent candidates for the High Integrity Forest (HIFOR) initiative, a new financing instrument that uniquely focuses on maintaining intact tropical forests.3 HIFOR rewards the climate services that intact tropical forests provide, including ongoing net carbon removal from the atmosphere, and complements existing instruments to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+) by focusing on tropical forests that are largely undegraded.

Below, we detail the major findings and then zoom in on the peak carbon areas in the northeast and southwest Amazon.

Peak Carbon Areas in the Amazon   

The Base Map below illustrates our major findings.

The peak carbon areas (>140 metric tons per hectare; indicated in pink) are concentrated in the southwest and northeast Amazon, covering 27.8 million hectares (11 million ha in the southwest and 16.8 million ha in the northeast).
k

Base Map. Planet Forest Carbon Diligence across the Amazon biome for the year 2022. Data: Planet.

In the southwest Amazon, peak carbon levels are found in southern & central Peru, and adjacent western Brazil.

In the northeast Amazon, peak carbon levels are found in northeast Brazil, much of French Guiana, and parts of Suriname.

By country, Brazil and Peru have the largest area of peak carbon (10.9 million and 10.1 million hectares respectively), followed by French Guiana (4.7 million ha), and Suriname (2.1 million ha).

Protected areas and Indigenous territories cover much (61%) of the peak carbon area (16.9 million hectares).

The remaining 39% remains unprotected, and arguably threatened, in undesignated lands (9.4 million hectares) and forestry concessions (1.5 million ha), respectively.

In addition, high carbon areas (>70 metric tons per hectare; indicated by the greenish-yellow coloration in the Base Map) are found in all nine countries of the Amazon biome, notably Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia, Venezuela, and Guyana.

Southwest Amazon

­Southern Peru

Figure 2a. Peak carbon area in the southern Peruvian Amazon. Data: Planet, SERNANP, RAISG.

Figure 2a zooms in on the peak carbon area covering 7.9 million hectares in southern Peru (regions of Madre de Dios, Cusco, and Ucayali) and adjacent southwest Brazil (Acre).

Several protected areas (such as Manu and Alto Purús National Parks, and Machiguenga Communal Reserve) anchor this area.

It is also home to numerous Indigenous territories (such as Mashco Piro, Madre de Dios, and Kugapakori, Nahua, Nanti & Others Indigenous Reserves).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 2b highlights the major land designations within the peak carbon area of southern Peru.

Figure 2b. Peak carbon areas (outlined in pink), categorized by land designation in southern Peru and adjacent western Brazil. Data: Planet, NICFI, SERNANP, SERFOR, RAISG.

Protected areas and Indigenous territories cover 77% of this area (green and brown, respectively).

The remaining 23% could be considered threatened, as they are located in forestry concessions or undesignated lands (orange and red, respectively). Thus, these areas are ideal candidates for increased protection to maintain their peak carbon levels.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Central Peru

Figure 3a. Peak carbon area in the central Peruvian Amazon. Data: Planet, SERNANP, RAISG.

Figure 3a zooms in on the peak carbon area in the central Peruvian Amazon, which covers 3.1 million hectares in the regions of Ucayali, Loreto, Huánuco, Pasco, and San Martin.

Several protected areas (including Sierra del Divisor, Cordillera Azul, Rio Abiseo, and Yanachaga–Chemillén National Parks, and El Sira Communal Reserve) anchor this area.

It is also home to numerous Indigenous territories (such as Kakataibo, Isconahua, and Yavarí Tapiche Indigenous Reserves).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 3b. Peak carbon areas (outlined in pink), categorized by land designation in central Peru. Data: Planet, NICFI, SERNANP, SERFOR, RAISG.

Figure 3b highlights the major land designations within the peak carbon area of central Peru.

Protected areas and Indigenous territories cover 69% of this area (green and brown, respectively).

The remaining 31% could be considered threatened, as they are located in forestry concessions or undesignated lands (orange and red, respectively), and are ideal candidates for increased protection.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Northeast Amazon

Figure 4a. Peak carbon area in the tri-border region of the northeast Amazon. Data: Planet, RAISG.

Figure 4a zooms in on the peak carbon area in the tri-border region of the northeast Amazon, which covers 16.8 million hectares in northern Brazil, French Guiana, and Suriname.

Several protected areas (including Montanhas do Tumucumaque National Park in northeast Brazil, Amazonien de Guyane National Park in French Guiana, and Central Suriname Nature Reserve) anchor this area.

It is also home to numerous Indigenous territories (such as Tumucumaque, Rio Paru de Este, and Wayãpi in northeast Brazil).

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 4b. Peak carbon areas (outlined in pink), categorized by land designation in northeast Amazon. Data: Planet, NICFI, RAISG.

Figure 4b highlights the major land designations within the peak carbon area of the northeast Amazon.

Protected areas and Indigenous territories cover just over half (51%) of this area (green and brown, respectively).

The remaining 49% could be considered threatened, as they are located in undesignated lands, and are ideal candidates for increased protection.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notes

1 We selected this value (upper 33%) to capture the highest aboveground carbon areas and include a range of high carbon areas. Additional analyses could target different values, such as the highest 10% or 20% of aboveground carbon.

2  A recent paper documented a strong relationship between selective logging and aboveground carbon loss (Csillik et al. 2024, PNAS). The link between forest edges and carbon is presented in Silva Junior et al, Science Advances.

3 High Integrity Forest (HIFOR) units are a new tradable asset that recognizes and rewards the essential climate services and biodiversity conservation that intact tropical forests provide, including ongoing net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. For more information see https://www.wcs.org/our-work/climate-change/forests-and-climate-change/hifor

4 For more information, see the “What is Forest Carbon Diligence?” section in this recent blog from Planet.

Citation

Finer M, Mamani N, Anderson C, Rosenthal A (2024) Carbon across the Amazon (part 2): Peak Carbon Areas. MAAP #217.

MAAP #215: Unprecedented Look at Carbon across the Amazon (part 1)

Posted on by dcadmin
Figure 1. Example of Planet Forest Carbon Diligence, focused on southern Peru and adjacent western Brazil.

The Amazon biome has long been one of the world’s largest carbon sinks, helping stabilize the global climate.

Precisely estimating this carbon, however, has been a challenge. Fortunately, new satellite-based technologies are providing major advances, most notably NASA’s GEDI mission (see MAAP #213) and, most recently, Planet Forest Carbon Diligence.1

Here, we focus on the latter, analyzing Planet’s cutting-edge new dataset, featuring a 10-year historical time series (2013 – 2022) with wall-to-wall estimates for aboveground carbon density at 30-meter resolution.

As a result, we can produce high-resolution aboveground carbon maps and estimates for anywhere and everywhere across the vast Amazon (see Figure 1).

Through a generous sharing agreement with Planet, we have been granted access to this data across the entire Amazon biome for the analysis presented in the following three-part series:

  1. Estimate and illustrate total aboveground forest carbon across the Amazon biome in unprecedented detail (see results of this first report, below).
    j
  2. Highlight which parts of the Amazon are home to the highest aboveground carbon levels, including protected areas and Indigenous territories (see second report, MAAP #217).
    l
  3. Present emblematic deforestation cases that have resulted in the highest aboveground carbon emissions across the Amazon (see third report, MAAP #220).

Major Results

Carbon across the Amazon

Based on our analysis of Planet Forest Carbon Diligence, we estimate that the Amazon contained 56.8 billion metric tons of aboveground carbon, as of 2022 (see Base Map). Applying a standard root-to-shoot ratio conversion (26%), this estimate increases to 71.5 billion metric tons of above and belowground carbon. This total is equivalent to nearly two years of global carbon dioxide emissions at the peak 2022 level (37.15 billion metric tons).5

The peak carbon levels are largely concentrated in the southwest Amazon (southern Peru and adjacent western Brazil) and northeast Amazon (northeast Brazil, French Guiana, and Suriname).

Base Map. Planet Forest Carbon Diligence across the Amazon biome.

Total Carbon by Country

As shown in Graph 1, countries with the most aboveground carbon are 1) Brazil (57%; 32.1 billion metric tons), 2) Peru (15%; 8.3 billion metric tons), 3) Colombia (7%; 4 billion metric tons), 4) Venezuela (6%; 3.3 billion metric tons), and 5) Bolivia (6%; 3.2 billion metric tons). These countries are followed by Guyana (3%; 2 billion metric tons), Suriname (3%; 1.6 billion metric tons), Ecuador (2%; 1.2 billion metric tons), and French Guiana (2%; 1.1 billion metric tons).

Overall, we documented the total gain of 64.7 million metric tons of aboveground carbon across the Amazon during the ten years between 2013 and 2022.2 In other words, the Amazon is still functioning as a critical carbon sink.

The countries with the most aboveground carbon gain over the past ten years are 1) Brazil, 2) Colombia, 3) Suriname, 4) Guyana, and 5) French Guiana. Note that we show Brazil as a carbon sink (gain of 102.8 million metric tons), despite other recent studies showing it as a carbon source.3 Also note the important gains in aboveground carbon across several key High Forest cover, Low Deforestation (HFLD) countries, namely Colombia, Suriname, Guyana, and French Guiana.4

In contrast, the countries with the most aboveground carbon loss over the past ten years are 1) Bolivia, 2) Venezuela, 3) Peru, and 4) Ecuador.

Graph 1. Planet Forest Carbon Diligence data across the Amazon biome, comparing 2013-14 with 2021-22. Note that a “+” symbol indicates that the country gained aboveground carbon, while a “-“ symbol indicates that the country lost aboveground carbon.

Carbon Density by Country

Standardizing for area, Graph 2 shows that countries with the highest aboveground carbon density (that is, aboveground carbon per hectare as of 2021-22) are located in the northeast Amazon: French Guiana (134 metric tons/hectare), Suriname (122 metric tons/hectare), and Guyana (85 metric tons/hectare). Ecuador is also high (94 metric tons/hectare).

Note that countries in the northeast Amazon (French Guiana, Suriname, and Guyana) have lower total aboveground carbon due to their smaller size (Graph 1), but high aboveground carbon density per hectare (Graph 2). This also applies to Ecuador.

Graph 2. Planet Forest Carbon Diligence data for aboveground carbon density by country across the Amazon, comparing 2013-14 with 2021-22. Note that a “+” symbol indicates that the country gained aboveground carbon, while a “-“ symbol indicates that the country lost aboveground carbon.

Notes & Citations

1 Anderson C (2024) Forest Carbon Diligence: Breaking Down The Validation And Intercomparison Report. https://www.planet.com/pulse/forest-carbon-diligence-breaking-down-the-validation-and-intercomparison-report/

2 In terms of uncertainty, the data contains pixel-level estimates, but not yet at national levels. To minimize annual uncertainty at the country level, we averaged 2013 and 2014 for the baseline and 2021 and 2022 for the current state.

3 Recently, in MAAP #144, we showed Brazil as a carbon source, based on data from 2001 to 2020. In contrast, Planet Forest Carbon Diligence is based on data from 2013 to 2022. Thus, one interpretation of the difference is that most carbon loss occurred in the first decade of the 2000s, which is consistent with historical deforestation data showing peaks in the early 2000s. It also highlights the likely importance of the interplay between forest loss/degradation (carbon loss) and forest regeneration (carbon gain) in terms of whether a country is a carbon source or sink during a given timeframe.

4 HFDL, or “High Forest cover, Low Deforestation” describes countries with both a) high forest cover (>50%) and low deforestation rates (<0.22% per year). For more information on HFDL, see https://www.conservation.org/blog/what-on-earth-is-hfld-hint-its-about-forests

5 Annual carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions worldwide from 1940 to 2023

Citation

Finer M, Mamani N, Anderson C, Rosenthal A (2024) Unprecedented Look at Carbon across the Amazon. MAAP  #215.

 

MAAP #206: Direct Link Emerges between Mennonites and Potential Large-scale Deforestation in Suriname

Posted on by Lauren deVilla

In the recent MAAP #203, we reported that the government of Suriname is preparing to clear large tracts of Amazon rainforest for agriculture.

Specifically, we estimated that a shocking 451,000 hectares (1.1 million acres) of primary forest were threatened in the proposed agricultural plots.

Intertwined with this issue are additional reports indicating that groups of Mennonites are in the process of relocating to Suriname from Bolivia. This raised alarms given the extensive large-scale agriculture deforestation caused by Mennonites in the Amazon regions of both Peru and Bolivia.

Here we report the first evidence directly linking the Mennonites with potential large-scale deforestation in Suriname.

As background, the agricultural real estate company Terra Invest is responsible for all aspects of the project to bring select Mennonites families to Suriname from Bolivia1. As detailed in the Bolivian news outlet Nomadas, the Suriname government would grant the agriculture land to Terra Invest, who would then transfer the land to societies formed by Mennonites in Suriname. 

Newly leaked government documents, from Suriname’s Ministry of Land and Forest Management dated to February 2023, provide the first available spatial data on the location of proposed lands to Terra Invest.

These lands are broken down into three separate areas, totaling 78,775 hectares.

The Base Map shows these Terra Invest request areas (purple) in relation to the previously published information on proposed agricultural plots to the Ministry of Agriculture and Foundations backed by private land developers.

Potential Primary Forest Loss

We performed an additional analysis looking at how much primary forest is contained and threatened in these proposed agriculture plots to Terra Invest. This analysis was based on data from the University of Maryland and Global Forest Watch.

In Figure 2, we show that the proposed Terra Invest plots threaten 76,932 hectares of primary forest. Note that 8,991 hectares of primary forest overlaps with Kaboeri Creek Nature Preserve.

We also that of the above total, 22,675 hectares of primary forest are in addition to what was previously calculated for the Ministry of Agriculture lands. Thus, we now estimate that 473,675 of primary forest are threatened across all three types of proposed agriculture plots (Terra Invest, Ministry of Agriculture, and Foundations).

Notes

  1. Bolivian mennonites bring the «hell» of deforestation to Suriname

Citation

Finer M, Goedschalk J, Arinez Z (2024). Direct Link Emerges between Mennonites and Potential Large-scale Deforestation in Suriname. MAAP: 206.

MAAP #203: Massive Planned Deforestation in Amazon of Suriname

Posted on by Lauren deVilla

In a recent article, the environmental science news platform Mongabay reported that, according to their review of official documents, the government of Suriname is preparing to clear large tracts of Amazon rainforest for agriculture.

Mongabay reported that a massive amount of land (365,704 hectares, or 903,674 acres) was being targeted for new agriculture plots being established for the Ministry of Agriculture (354,836 hectares) and private land developers (10,868 hectares).

This is additionally noteworthy because large-scale agriculture is not historically or currently a deforestation driver in Suriname, so these new plots would likely trigger unprecedented forest loss in one of the world’s few remaining countries dominated by primary rainforest.

Intertwined with this issue are additional reports indicating that groups of Mennonites are planning to relocate to Suriname. This news has also raised alarms given the extensive deforestation caused by Mennonites in the Amazon regions of both Peru (7,032 hectares) and Bolivia (210,980 hectares).

In their article, Mongabay gathered information from the government documents to create a map of the proposed agriculture plots. We then digitized this map, calibrated it with coordinates in the documents, and then conducted our own analysis.

The Base Map shows our digitized map of the agricultural plots, with the inclusion of protected areas and Indigenous & Tribal Peoples villages, all overlayed on top of a recent satellite image.

We estimate 467,000 hectares in the proposed new agricultural plots (456,238 ha for the Ministry of Agriculture and 10394 ha for Foundations backed by private land developers). Note this is substantially higher than the estimate reported by Mongabay. Additional analysis of the documents indicates that the actual total could rise to 560,000 hectares.

Potential Primary Forest Loss

We performed an additional analysis looking at how much primary forest is contained and threatened in these proposed agriculture plots. This analysis was based on data from the University of Maryland and Global Forest Watch.

In Figure 2, we estimate 451,000 hectares of threatened primary forest in the proposed agriculture plots (441,362 ha for the Ministry of Agriculture and 9,958 ha for Foundations backed by private land developers).

This would result in a shocking amount of primary forest loss for a country that has experienced an average annual deforestation of 6,560 hectares over the past 21 years (137,746 hectares in total since the year 2002).

Citation

Finer M, Goedschalk J, Arinez Z (2024) Massive Planned Deforestation in Amazon of Suriname. MAAP: 203.

MAAP #199: Amazon Carbon Update, based on NASA’s GEDI Mission

Posted on by Lauren deVilla

As we approach the COP28 climate summit, starting in Dubai in late November, we provide here a concise update on the current state of remaining Amazon carbon reserves.

We present the newly updated version of NASA’s GEDI data1, which uses lasers aboard the International Space Station to provide cutting-edge estimates of aboveground biomass density on a global scale.

Here, we zoom in on the Amazon and take a first look at the newly updated data, which covers the time period of April 2019 – March 2023.2

This data, which is measured in megagrams of aboveground biomass per hectare (Mg/ha) at a 1-kilometer resolution, serves as our estimate for aboveground carbon reserves.

Figure 1 displays aboveground biomass across the Amazon biome. Note the highest carbon densities (indicated in bright yellow) are located in both the northeast Amazon and southwest Amazon.

Aboveground Biomass across the Amazon

Figure 2 also displays aboveground biomass across the Amazon biome, but this time with country boundaries and labels added.

Note that the peak biomass concentrations in the northeast Amazon include Suriname, French Guiana, and the northeast corner of Brazil. The peak biomass concentrations in the southwest Amazon are centered in southern Peru. Also note that many parts of Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Bolivia, Brazil, and northern Peru have high carbon densities as well.

Figure 2. Aboveground biomass density (carbon estimate) across the Amazon biome, with country boundaries. Data: NASA/GEDI, NICFI.

Carbon Estimates

We calculated over 78 billion metric tons of aboveground biomass across the Amazon biome (78,184,161,090 metric tons to be exact). Using a general assumption that 48% of this biomass is carbon3, we estimate over 37 billion metric tons of carbon across the Amazon (37,528,397,323 metric tons).

Note that these totals are likely underestimates given that the laser-based data has not yet achieved full coverage across the Amazon (that is, there are many areas where the lasers have not yet recorded data, leaving visible blanks in the maps above).

This is consistent with a previous study based on another independent dataset, where we estimated 6.7 billion metric tons of carbon in the Peruvian Amazon as of 2013 (MAAP #148). The current GEDI data estimates at least 5.3 billion metric tons in the Peruvian Amazon.

Carbon Sink

In a previous report, we showed that the Brazilian Amazon has become a net carbon source, whereas the total Amazon is still a net carbon sink (MAAP #144). Our current report goes one step further in terms of showing just how much carbon is left in that sink.

Notes

1GEDI L4B Gridded Aboveground Biomass Density, Version 2.1. https://daac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/dsviewer.pl?ds_id=2299

2Note that we previously reported on the initial data release, which covered the time period of April 2019 – August 2021 (see MAAP #160).

3Domke et al (2022) How Much Carbon is in Tree Biomass?. USDA/Forest Service.

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by NORAD (Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation) and ICFC (International Conservation Fund of Canada).

Citation

Mamani N, Finer M, Ariñez A (2022) Amazon Carbon Update, based on NASA’s GEDI Mission. MAAP: 199.

MAAP #197: Illegal Gold Mining Across the Amazon

Posted on by Matt Finer
Example of major gold mining zone in the Peruvian Amazon. Data: Planet.

Illegal Gold Mining continues to be one of the major issues facing nearly all Amazonian countries.

In fact, following the recent high-level summit of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization, the nations’ leaders signed the Belém Declaration, which contains a commitment to prevent and combat illegal mining, including strengthened regional and international cooperation (Objective 32).

Illegal gold mining is a major threat to the Amazon because it impacts both primary forests and rivers, often in remote and critical areas such as protected areas & indigenous territories.

That is, illegal gold mining is both a major deforestation driver and a source of water contamination (especially mercury) across the Amazon.

Previously, in MAAP #178, we presented a large-scale overview of the major gold mining deforestation hotspots across the entire Amazon biome. We found that gold mining is actively causing deforestation in nearly all nine countries of the Amazon.

Here, we update this analysis with two important additions. First, we add to the overview major gold mining operations taking place in rivers, in addition to those causing deforestation (see Figure 1).

Second, we present a new map of likely illegal gold mining sites, based on information from partners and location with protected areas and indigenous territories (see Figure 2).

Finally, we show a series of high-resolution satellite images of key examples of illegal Amazon gold mining.

Updated Amazon Gold Mining Map

Figure 1 is our updated Amazon gold mining map.

The orange dots indicate areas where gold mining is currently causing deforestation of primary forests. The blue dots indicate areas where gold mining is occurring in rivers. Combined, we documented 58 active forest and river-based mining sites across the Amazon.

The dots outlined in red indicate the mining sites that are likely illegal, for both forest and river-based mining. We found at least 49 cases of illegal mining across the Amazon, the vast majority of the active mining sites noted above.

Note the concentrations of illegal mining causing deforestation in southern Peru, across eastern Brazil, and across Ecuador. Similarly, note the concentrations of illegal mining in rivers in northern Peru and adjacent Colombia and Brazil.

Figure 1. Updated Amazon gold mining map. Data: ACA/MAAP. Click to enlarge.

Protected Areas & Indigenous Territories

Figure 2 adds protected areas and indigenous territories. We found at least 36 conflictive overlaps: 16 in protected areas and 20 in indigenous territories. We also found an additional two conflicts with Brazilian National Forests.

We highlight a number of high-conflict zones. For protected areas: Podocarpus National Park in Ecuador; Madidi National Park in Bolivia; Canaima, Caura, and Yapacana National Parks in Venezuela. We note that the Peruvian government has been effectively minimizing invasions in protected areas in the southern region of Madre de Dios (Tambopata National Reserve and Amarakaeri Communal Reserve).

For indigenous territories: Kayapo, Menkragnoti, Yanomami, and Mundurucu in Brazil; Pueblo Shuar Arutam in Ecuador, and a number of communities in southern Peru.

Figure 2. Amazon gold mining map., with protected areas and indigenous territories. Data: ACA/MAAP, RAISG. Click to enlarge.

Methods

The forest-based mining sites displayed in Figure 1 are largely based on information obtained over the last several years of our deforestation monitoring work. The river-based sites are largely based on information obtained from partners in country and on the ground.

We complemented this information with automated, machine-based data from Amazon Mining Watch, and data from RAISG.

For these sources, we checked recent imagery and only included sites that appeared to still be active.

Classification as an illegal mining site is largely based on location within protected areas or indigenous territories, or clearly
outside of an authorized mining zone

Citation

Finer M, Mamani N, Arinez A, Novoa S, Larrea-Alcázar D, Villa J (2023) Illegal Gold Mining Across the Amazon. MAAP: 197.

 

MAAP #164: Amazon Tipping Point – Where Are We?

Posted on by dcadmin
Base Map. Total Amazon forest loss. Data: ACA/MAAP.

It is increasingly reported that the largest rainforest in the world, the Amazon, is rapidly approaching a tipping point.

As repeatedly highlighted by the late Tom Lovejoy (see Acknowledgements), this tipping point is where parts of the rainforest will convert into drier ecosystems due to disrupted precipitation patterns and more intense dry seasons, both exacerbated by deforestation.

The Amazon generates much of its own rainfall by recycling water as air passes from its major source in the Atlantic Ocean. Thus, high deforestation in the eastern Amazon may lead to downwind impacts in the central and western Amazon (see Background section below).

The scientific literature indicates this tipping point could be triggered at 25% Amazon forest loss, in conjunction with climate change impacts.

The literature, however, is less clear on the critical first part of the tipping point equation: how much of the Amazon has already been lost?

There are numerous estimates, including 14% forest loss cited in the recent Science Panel for the Amazon report, but we did not find any actual definitive studies specifically addressing this question.

Here, we directly tackle this key question of how much of the original Amazon has been lost to date.

First, we present the first known rigorous estimate of original Amazon biome forest prior to European colonization: over 647 million hectares (1.6 billion acres; see Image 1 below).

Second, we estimate the accumulated total Amazon forest loss, from the original estimate to the present: over 85 million hectares (211 million acres; see Base Map).

Combining these two results, we estimate that 13% of the original Amazon biome forest has been lost.

More importantly, however, focusing on just the eastern third of the Amazon biome (see Image 2 below), we estimate that 31% of the original forest has been lost, above the speculated tipping point threshold. This finding is critical because the tipping point will likely be triggered in the eastern Amazon, as it is closest to the oceanic source of the water that then flows to the central and western Amazon.

Original Amazon Forest

Image 1 shows the first known estimate of original Amazon forest prior to European colonization. Note that we use a broader biogeographical definition of the Amazon that covers nine countries (Amazon biome) rather than the strict Amazon watershed (see Methodology).

Image 1. Original Amazon biome forest. Data: ACA/MAAP.

This represents the most rigorous effort to date to recreate the original Amazon. For example, we attempted to recreate original forest lost to historic dam reservoirs.

The map has just three classes: Original Amazon forest, Original non-forest (such as natural savannah), and Water.

We found that the original Amazon forest covered over 647 million hectares (647,607,020 ha). This is equivalent to 1.6 billion acres.

Of this total, 61.4% occurred in Brazil, followed by Peru (12%), Colombia (7%), Venezuela (6%), and Bolivia (5%). The remaining four countries (Ecuador, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana) make up the final 8%.

Amazon Forest Loss

Image 2 shows the accumulated total Amazon forest loss, from the original estimate to the present (2022).

Image 2. Total Amazon forest loss. Vertical lines indicate the Amazon broken down into thirds. Data: ACA/MAAP.

Of the original forest noted above, we documented the historic loss of over 85 million hectares (85,499,157 ha). This is equivalent to 211 million acres.

The largest loss occurred in Brazil (69.5 million ha), followed by Peru (4.7 million ha), Colombia (4 million ha), Bolivia (3.8 million ha), and Venezuela (1.4 million ha). The remaining four countries (Ecuador, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana) make up the final 1.9 million ha.

By comparing the original Amazon biome, we calculated the historic loss of 13.2% of the original Amazon forest due to deforestation and other causes.

More importantly, however, we find that 30.8% of the original Amazon has been lost in the eastern third of the Amazon biome (see vertical dashed lines Image 2), above the speculated tipping point threshold. This finding is critical because as noted above, the tipping point will likely be triggered in the east as it is the source of the water flowing to the central and western Amazon.

In contrast, we find that 10.8% of the original Amazon has been lost in the central third of the Amazon biome and 6.3% has been lost in the western third, both of which are below the speculated tipping point threshold.

Background

The Amazon generates around half of its own rainfall by recycling moisture up to 6 times as air masses move from the Atlantic Ocean in the east across the basin to the west. Thus, the rainforest plays a major part in keeping itself alive, by recycling water through its trees to generate rainfall from east to west.

This unique hydrological cycle has historically supported rainforest ecosystems for vast areas far from the main ocean source.

But it also raises the question of how much deforestation would be required to cause the cycle to degrade to the point of being unable to support these forests, thus the Amazon tipping point hypothesis.

In this scenario, rainforests would transform into drier ecosystems, such as open canopy scrubland and savannah.

The tipping point concept originally referred to an abrupt ecosystem change, but it is now believed that the shift could happen gradually (30-50 years).

It is worth noting that the western Amazon near the Andes mountains would likely maintain its rainforests, as air currents flowing over the mountains would continue causing water vapor to condense and fall as rain.

Methodology

At the core of this work, we generated two major estimates: original Amazon forest and total historical Amazon forest loss.

For both of these estimates, we used the biogeographical boundary of the Amazon (as determined by RAISG 2020), which encompasses nine countries. Thus, we used a broader definition of the Amazon (Amazon biome) rather than the strict Amazon watershed, which omits part of the northeastern Amazon biome.

For original Amazon forest, we defined three major classes: Forest, Non-Forest, and Water. This analysis was based on data from MapBiomas Brazil (collection 2 from 1990) with some additional modifications. Original Forest was made up of these MapBiomas categories: Forest Formation, Mangrove, Flooded Forest, Mosaic of Agriculture and Pasture. Non-Forest was made up of these MapBiomas categories: Savanna Formation, Natural Non-Forest Flood Formation, Grassland, and Other non-Forest Formations. Water was made up of these MapBiomas categories: River, Lake, Ocean and Glacier.

We then made a number of modifications with manual edits based on data from the University of Maryland, INPE (Terrabrasilis), ArcGis satellite images, Planet mosaics, Google Earth Engine Landsat images from 1984-1990, and official government data for several countries (Ministry of the Environment of Ecuador (MAE) and Peru (GeoBosques/MINAM), Forest and Carbon Monitoring System/IDEAM of Colombia, National Institute for Space Research of Brazil (INPE/Terrabrasilis), General Directorate of Forest Management and Development of Bolivia (DGGDF), and the National Service of Protected Areas of Bolivia (SERNAP). As an example of a major modification, deforested areas and historic dam reservoirs were changed to Original Forest based on an analysis of the oldest available satellite image for the area (1984-1990). We also corrected some misclassifications, such as forest patches in clearly non-forest areas were changed to Non-Forest (and vice versa) and mountain forest areas found as water were changed to Forest. Also, agriculture and urban areas in likely savannah areas were changed to Non-Forest. Additional Water data from MapBiomas based on 1985 was incorporated. Overall, our focus was defining Original Forest as best as possible; data confusions between Non-Forest and Water categories were not worked on as thoroughly.

For total historical Amazon forest loss, we used data from the University of Maryland. Specifically, we first used their data layer ‘Tree Cover 2000″ (>30% canopy density) to estimate historical (pre-2000) forest loss. We then added annual forest loss data from 2001 to 2021.

Finally, we divided the original Amazon forest by the total historical loss to estimate how much of the original Amazon has been lost. In addition, we delimited the Amazon in thirds according to distance east to west at the widest point. We then estimated how much of the original Amazon has been lost in each of these three sections.

References

(in chronological order)

Sampaio, G., Nobre, C., Costa, M. H., Satyamurty, P., Soares‐Filho, B. S., & Cardoso, M. (2007). Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(17).

Hansen, M. C. et. al. (2013) High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change. Science 342.

Nobre et al. (2016) Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a novel sustainable development paradigm. PNAS, 113 (39).

Turubanova S., Potapov P., Tyukavina, A., and Hansen M. (2018) Ongoing primary forest loss in Brazil, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Indonesia. Environmental Research Letters.

Lovejoy, T. E., & Nobre, C. (2018). Amazon Tipping Point. Science Advances, 4(2).

Lovejoy, T. E., & Nobre, C. (2019). Amazon tipping point: Last chance for action. Science Advances, 5 (12).

Bullock et. al. (2019) Satellite-based estimates reveal widespread forest degradation in the Amazon. Glob Change Biol., 26.

Amigo, I. (2020) The Amazon’s fragile future. Nature, 578.

MapBiomas. 2020. MapBiomas Amazonia v2.0. https://amazonia.mapbiomas.org/.

Killeen (2021) A Perfect Storm in the Amazon Wilderness

Berenguer E. et. al. (2021) Ch 19. Drivers and ecological impacts of deforestation and forest degradation. In: Nobre C, Encalada et al. (Eds). Amazon Assessment Report 2021. United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network, New York, USA. Available from https://www.theamazonwewant.org/spa-reports

Hirota M et. al (2021) Science Panel for the Amazon, Ch 24. Resilience of the Amazon Forest to Global Changes: Assessing the Risk of Tipping Points. In: Nobre C, Encalada et al. (Eds). Amazon Assessment Report 2021. United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network, New York, USA. Available from https://www.theamazonwewant.org/spa-reports/

Wunderling et al (2022) Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest. PNAS 119 (32) e2120777119.

Acknowledgements

This report is in memory of Tom Lovejoy, who helped launch the critical concept of an Amazon tipping point. Starting in 2019, we collaborated with Tom on the need assessment and background research behind this report.

We thank Carmen Thorndike for helping with the initial literature review, and Carlos Nobre for review of the final report. We also thank J. Beavers (ACA), A. Folhadella (ACA), M.E. Gutierrez (ACCA), and C. Josse (EcoCiencia) for additional comments.

This work was supported by NORAD (Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation) and ICFC (International Conservation Fund of Canada).

Citation

Finer M, Mamani N (2022) Amazon Tipping Point – Where Are We?. MAAP: 164.

MAAP #160: Lasers Estimate Carbon in the Amazon – NASA’s GEDI Mission

Posted on by dcadmin
Simulation of GEDI lasers collecting data. Source: UMD.

NASA’s GEDI mission uses lasers to provide cutting-edge estimates of aboveground biomass and related carbon on a global scale.

Launched in late 2018 and installed on the International Space Station, GEDI’s lasers return an estimate of aboveground biomass density at greater accuracy and resolution than previously available.

Here, we zoom in on the Amazon and take a first look at the recently available Level 4B data: Gridded Aboveground Biomass Density measured in megagrams per hectare (Mg/ha) at a 1-kilometer resolution.

See the GEDI homepage for more background information on the mission, which extends until January 2023. Be sure to check out this illustrative video.

 

 

 

 

Base Map – Aboveground Biomass in the Amazon

The Base Map displays the GEDI data for the nine countries of the Amazon biome, displaying aboveground biomass for the time period April 2019 to August 2021.

Base Map. Aboveground Biomass Density in the Amazon. Data: NASA/UMD GEDI L4B. Click twice to enlarge.

 

We highlight the following initial major findings:

  • The data is not yet comprehensive as there are some areas the lasers have not yet recorded data (indicated in white).
    h
  • The areas with the highest aboveground biomass and related carbon (indicated in dark green and purple) include:
    • Northeast Amazon: Corner of Brazil, Suriname, & French Guiana.
    • Southwest Amazon: Southwest Brazil and adjacent Peru (see zoom below).
    • Northwest Amazon: Northern Peru, Ecuador, and southeast Colombia.

Zoom In – Southwest Amazon

To better visualize the GEDI laser data, we also present a zoom of the Southwest Amazon. Although deforested areas (and natural savannahs) are illustrated in yellow and orange, note the surrounding presence of high carbon forest (green and purple).

Zoom In – Southwest Amazon. Aboveground Biomass Density. Data: NASA/UMD GEDI L4B. Click twice to enlarge.

Zoom Out – Global Scale

Note that tropical forests, including the Amazon, have the highest levels of aboveground biomass globally.

Zoom Out – Glocal scale. Aboveground Biomass Density. Data: NASA/UMD GEDI L4B. Click twice to enlarge.

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by NORAD (Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation) and ICFC (International Conservation Fund of Canada).

Citation

Finer M, Ariñez A (2022) Lasers Estimate Carbon in the Amazon – NASA’s GEDI Mission. MAAP: 160.